Which model do we use?
A mine-level sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP). We estimate each mine's net present value (NAV) using a simplified, finite-life discounted cash-flow model. We then add enabled by-products, non-mining businesses and selected financial assets, deduct net debt, provisions and the present value of head-office costs, and divide by the share count.
Model valuation date: 30 June 2026. This article reproduces the supplied workbook's assumptions and calculations; it is not a live quote or an official company valuation.
Key assumptions
The three cases change long-term commodity prices only. Production, costs, tax rates, discount rates and corporate adjustments remain fixed. These prices are valuation assumptions, not guaranteed forecasts.
| Long-term price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (USD/oz) | 3,200 | 4,500 | 4,800 |
| Copper (USD/t) | 8,000 | 14,000 | 16,500 |
| Lithium (USD/t LCE) | 9,000 | 21,000 | 24,500 |
| Zinc equivalent (USD/t) | 2,300 | 3,800 | 4,000 |
| Silver (USD/oz; by-product) | 30 | 65 | 70 |
| Molybdenum (USD/t; by-product) | 30,000 | 90,000 | 100,000 |
- Annualised H1 2026 attributable production as entered in the workbook; ownership is not applied a second time.
- A 25% cash tax on positive cash profits. Discount rates: gold and copper 9%, zinc equivalent 10%, lithium 11%.
- Finite mine lives, with no perpetual terminal value. Mine-specific costs take priority over commodity defaults.
- Fixed FX: USD 1 = RMB 7.15; RMB 1 = HKD 1.09. Share count: 26.51324 billion.
Fair value in three cases
| Model estimate | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value per share (RMB) | 10.67 | 28.07 | 33.77 |
| Value per share (HKD equivalent) | 11.63 | 30.60 | 36.81 |
The HKD row is a currency conversion of the same equity valuation, not a separately modelled A/H-share premium or discount. No probabilities are assigned to the cases. They are not time-bound price targets or trading instructions.
Open check: by-products may overlap with primary-metal production or cost credits. These figures preserve the workbook's enabled entries and should be treated as provisional scenario estimates, not a conclusion free of double-counting risk.
Try your own assumptions
Start with a case, then edit the numbers to recalculate. The tables above retain the original model. Your changes stay on this page and reset on refresh.
Base case · Value per share
Versus original Base: +0.00%
HKD is a currency conversion. This is a conditional model estimate, not a market quote or investment recommendation.
More assumptions: mine costs, output and discounting
100% keeps the model input. Cost percentages scale both mine-specific overrides and default costs. Changing primary-mine output recalculates reserve life against unchanged reserves; by-product output is set separately.
By-products: choose which entries to include
Some gold may already be reflected in primary production or cost credits. Excluding entries explores a more conservative case; it does not establish that all other overlap is resolved.
Original retained cash margins are 80% for gold/silver and 70% for copper/molybdenum; 100% retains those margins. Gold/copper by-products use the same commodity prices and discount rates as above. By-product lives stay fixed.
Tax, exchange rates and corporate adjustments
Corporate amounts are RMB billions; shares are in billions. Non-mining segment profits and the 78.63% attribution factor stay fixed; their valuation multiples are editable.
See how your valuation adds up
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Gold | 299.44 |
| Copper | 389.03 |
| Lithium | 28.38 |
| Zinc equivalent | 24.50 |
| By-products | 60.17 |
| Non-mining businesses | 46.11 |
| Additional financial assets | 0.00 |
| Net debt adjustment | -74.31 |
| Provisions | -8.96 |
| Head-office cost PV | -20.00 |
| Total equity value | 744.35 |
Based on the 30 June 2026 model. Reserves, success probabilities and unedited mine parameters stay fixed. Zhunuo and Xiongcun remain excluded because remaining capex is missing. A 0% discount rate uses undiscounted flows, including a zero-rate limit for by-products to avoid division by zero in the original formula.
Supporting details
From operating assets to equity value
RMB billions. Negative numbers are deductions. Components are displayed to two decimals and may not sum exactly because of rounding.
| Component | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold mine NAV | 157.58 | 299.44 | 332.17 |
| Copper mine NAV | 143.33 | 389.03 | 491.40 |
| Lithium mine NAV | −1.65 | 28.38 | 37.02 |
| Zinc/lead mine NAV (ZnEq proxy) | 4.08 | 24.50 | 27.22 |
| Enabled by-products | 36.82 | 60.17 | 64.79 |
| Non-mining businesses | 46.11 | 46.11 | 46.11 |
| Additional financial assets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net debt | −74.31 | −74.31 | −74.31 |
| Provisions | −8.96 | −8.96 | −8.96 |
| Present value of head-office costs | −20.00 | −20.00 | −20.00 |
| Total equity value | 283.00 | 744.35 | 895.45 |
How the mine assumptions work
| Commodity | Default full-cycle unit cost | Reserve conversion | Default life cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | USD 1,800/oz | 43% | 18 years |
| Copper | USD 4,500/t | 52% | 25 years |
| Lithium | USD 9,500/t LCE | 42% | 20 years |
| Zinc equivalent | USD 2,000/t | 62% | 15 years |
Where resources are available, the model estimates life as resource quantity × conversion rate × economic interest ÷ annual attributable production, capped at the default life. Missing resource data uses the default. Mine-specific cost and life overrides take priority. LCE means lithium carbonate equivalent.
Operating/ramp-up/construction success assumptions are 100%/90%/60% for gold, copper and zinc equivalent, and 95%/85%/55% for lithium. Cash flows are discounted for the wait until production and weighted by success, before deducting remaining construction capital expenditure.
Calculation steps
- Annual pre-tax cash profit = attributable production × unit conversion × (commodity price − full-cycle unit cost).
- Annual after-tax cash flow = pre-tax cash profit − positive cash profit × cash tax rate. Losses receive no immediate tax shield.
- Mine NAV = finite-life present value of after-tax cash flows ÷ start-up discount factor × success probability − remaining construction capital expenditure.
- Non-mining businesses use H1 segment profit × 2, with multiples of 8× for refined products, 6× for trading and 8× for other businesses, followed by a 78.63% parent-attribution factor.
- Annual head-office costs of RMB 2 billion are capitalised at 10× and deducted. Additional financial assets have a 0% inclusion rate to avoid duplication.
Limits and open checks
- Zhunuo and Xiongcun copper projects have no remaining construction capex entered, so their NAV is excluded in every case. This does not mean those assets have no value.
- Five by-product entries are enabled. Serbia Zijin Mining already has 5,004 kg of annualised attributable gold in the mine table, alongside a separate 5,177 kg gold by-product entry. Their scope and any cost credits need reconciliation. Other by-products also need checking against group gold production.
- Bear-case lithium prices fall below the default cost. The model retains negative cash flows without assuming a shutdown option, giving lithium a negative NAV.
- Simply doubling H1 output does not fully capture seasonality, maintenance, grades, recoveries, payable ratios, working capital or year-by-year capacity changes. This is not a full engineering feasibility study or a detailed annual DCF.
- Zinc/lead is represented by a zinc-equivalent proxy. Reserve conversion, finite lives and success probabilities are simplifications; resources are not necessarily recoverable reserves.
Source: the supplied Zijin Mining SOTP workbook, particularly its assumptions, mine NAV, by-products, non-mining businesses and valuation summary sheets. The workbook cites the 2025 annual report and H1 2026 disclosures. Calculations were reconciled here; all underlying financial-report inputs were not independently reverified. The raw workbook and personal account information are not published.
Personal research and learning notes, not investment advice or a solicitation. Valuation changes with assumptions and new information.